MK Mafia (ENDGAME)

So, we have 2 boos left, and 6 people total. So 1/3 of the people are boos.
And the thing is, all people who are saying "No Lynch" are basically saying that the mafia/boos will kill more and more people. We have less than a 50% chance of any boo dying. So if we vote someone, that person would probably be a Toad, and not a boo. Even with this reasoning, I vote No Lynch because then we can see more evidence in people lying.
First NintendoFan, then Dark Boo. My hypothesis is that the least popular person is going to die (I'm probably wrong).
So whoever the two mafia people are would probably stick with their friends until the end. Maybe they would vote for the most experienced players...maybe?
My trusts (for 1nsan1)
Yoshiman: 1/2 trust: He's a really strategic player and hasn't talked, so he might be King Boo because he might be ashamed that people would know, so he didn't answer.
FNAR: Boo---he's been so hyper that he might be trying to be in disguise. And before, he was questioning people. This could mean that he was faking it so he wouldn't have to share his guilt in public. (1/3 trust)
Sashe: 2/3 trust: Well, even though you haven't talked all the time, you haven't said anything suspicious, and you seem like you know what's going on and not wanting to take part, but could THIS mean that you're Boo/King Boo.
Accj21: 2/3 trust: You've also been quiet too. I have some suspicion about you, but I think you're Peach because you didn't want to get involved until the way end. Then you can help revive one of the townies.
1nsan1: Full trust: I trust you. You've been giving full information about what's going on, and I think you're telling the truth. If only we knew what Sashe and Accj21 would say, we could think more about this and possibly lynch one of them.
My predictions:
Bowser498 (me): Townie
Sashe: Townie
Accj21: Townie (Peach)
1nsan1: Townie (Mario)
Yoshiman: King Boo
FNAR: Boo
POSSIBLE MAFIA: Sashe2705, Accj21
So my bets are to not lynch, then wait and see if either Yoshiman or FNAR gives us some suspicious activity.
 
Yeah, if I were fake the Real Mario would have to have a damn good excuse for not outing. :p

Honestly, it seems like NLing is the best option. I still have at least one night left and this next report could be crucial. VOTE: NO LYNCH

@Bowser

No offense, but you might not want to say who you think Peach is. Peach is very important to town and honestly the only thing keeping me alive. Granted, it's too late to change anything now, but, just for future games I guess. :p

Yoshiman was talking a fair bit at the start of the game and he doesn't seem particularly suspicious. Biggest problem is Sashe isn't really contributing and we can't really judge anything off of his personality.

So thus far we have ACCJ21, Bowser498 and 1nsan1 voting NO LYNCH.
 
1nsan1 said:
@Bowser

No offense, but you might not want to say who you think Peach is. Peach is very important to town and honestly the only thing keeping me alive. Granted, it's too late to change anything now, but, just for future games I guess. :p
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That's true. What's important is that we don't know who Peach is. Whoever the boos are, they need to know less so they don't dominate us.
And tbh, I have no clue who Peach is...
If the boos were to know who Peach was, then they could kill Peach and possibly have nobody healed!
Whatever happens, the boos must know nothing about this!
And Sashe not contributing means that...
1. He's a boo of some sort
2. It's his plan so people don't remember him
But as stated below, one possible theory of the mafia is that they could vote on the least spoken person or even the most well-heard person. So this could mean me or you might be out on Night 2.
Or FNAR or Yoshiman222, because they've been hardly contributing.
But whoever Peach is, PLEASE try to keep as much of a secret as possible. That way, the Toads/Townies have a better chance of winning! :)
 
Sashe could be a townie. If he's forgotten to participate here he may not have any night actions, which would allow him to forget about the game. Or he may be too nervous to contribute. It can go both ways. :/

And as long as Peach is alive I should be safe. The uncc'd (un contradicted) cop is the one the doctor's supposed to protect.
 
Bowser498 said:
Yoshiman: 1/2 trust: He's a really strategic player and hasn't talked, so he might be King Boo because he might be ashamed that people would know, so he didn't answer.
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Hey I spent the entire first day trying to get everyone to talk. You not been paying attention to the game or something? :p

And once again everyone's going for a No Lynch.
BAD IDEA.

Why? Because it accomplishes nothing but getting another innocent killed. Sure it might help some people with their suspicions give the Mario an extra night to search, and potentially, if the Peach is lucky enough, prevent the night kill from even occurring, but if we're just going to keep on going with a no lynch until we reach MYLO, then we'll probably be screwed by that time.

Now I'm not saying to just not go for the No Lynch - instead, use the day period to discuss thing like what you two have already been doing. Remove your votes for now so we can make sure we have more time to discuss (I know some of the quieter players might just follow along with the No Lynch system thus ending the day prematurely and potentially while in the middle of a conversation).

So now... back to the topic on hand, 1nasn1, tbh at first when you first claimed Mario I didn't really trust you since you havn't really been interested in revealing any of your finds. Of course with no counter-claims been made since, I am starting to believe a bit more since if you really weren't Mario the real one probably would have counter-claimed by now (or a boo might have counter-claimed trying to pretend to be Mario, which would be a stupid idea atm imo).
However, simply the fact that you're still alive and another player has died does cause some concern. It could mean that you're lying about being a Mario and the real Mario simply felt it too dangerous for who knows what reason to counter claim, and thus hopefully trying to waste Peach's protection by voting yourself, or that the Boo's are smarter than you think and thought this could happen, voting for someone else in hopes of avoiding Peach from protecting you, all-in-all which would help to add suspicion on to you.

At least, those are what I think the reasons for last night's outcome could be.
For today - I simply have a question to ask of you instead - who have you already searched?
Even if they are innocent, saying who they were won't provide too much of a problem. Only 1 innocent is King Boo, after all. If you have more than 1 innocent, that means you've found at least one innocent within a group. I suggest making those groups now (especially if we get lucky and kill King Boo later on - you might not be alive for it saying you're Mario and it would help to at least keep these things in records for when that time comes for all of us still alive).
 
So, I read it all and I am with Yoshiman, I don't think we should vote "No Lynch" today. Cause the only option that's somehow good for us, is the Mafia to kill the second Goomba. Then, if 1nsan1 (if he's telling the truth he's Mario, of course) spies someone and it says that it's a Boo, then he is really a Boo cause the two Goombas will be dead.

But otherwise, they'll get Peach, Mario or a Toad, which I think we should not allow to happen.

I don't suspect anyone in the moment, so I can't just vote someone, but again, I think that we should discuss more and not go for a "No Lynch" for a second time.

I think it'll be a good idea 1nsan1 to tell us who he has already searched. This could help us somehow :p.
 
Yoshiman222 said:
Bowser498 said:
Yoshiman: 1/2 trust: He's a really strategic player and hasn't talked, so he might be King Boo because he might be ashamed that people would know, so he didn't answer.
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Hey I spent the entire first day trying to get everyone to talk. You not been paying attention to the game or something? :p

And once again everyone's going for a No Lynch.
BAD IDEA.

Why? Because it accomplishes nothing but getting another innocent killed. Sure it might help some people with their suspicions give the Mario an extra night to search, and potentially, if the Peach is lucky enough, prevent the night kill from even occurring, but if we're just going to keep on going with a no lynch until we reach MYLO, then we'll probably be screwed by that time.

Now I'm not saying to just not go for the No Lynch - instead, use the day period to discuss thing like what you two have already been doing. Remove your votes for now so we can make sure we have more time to discuss (I know some of the quieter players might just follow along with the No Lynch system thus ending the day prematurely and potentially while in the middle of a conversation).

So now... back to the topic on hand, 1nasn1, tbh at first when you first claimed Mario I didn't really trust you since you havn't really been interested in revealing any of your finds. Of course with no counter-claims been made since, I am starting to believe a bit more since if you really weren't Mario the real one probably would have counter-claimed by now (or a boo might have counter-claimed trying to pretend to be Mario, which would be a stupid idea atm imo).
However, simply the fact that you're still alive and another player has died does cause some concern. It could mean that you're lying about being a Mario and the real Mario simply felt it too dangerous for who knows what reason to counter claim, and thus hopefully trying to waste Peach's protection by voting yourself, or that the Boo's are smarter than you think and thought this could happen, voting for someone else in hopes of avoiding Peach from protecting you, all-in-all which would help to add suspicion on to you.

At least, those are what I think the reasons for last night's outcome could be.
For today - I simply have a question to ask of you instead - who have you already searched?
Even if they are innocent, saying who they were won't provide too much of a problem. Only 1 innocent is King Boo, after all. If you have more than 1 innocent, that means you've found at least one innocent within a group. I suggest making those groups now (especially if we get lucky and kill King Boo later on - you might not be alive for it saying you're Mario and it would help to at least keep these things in records for when that time comes for all of us still alive).
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Okay, I'll address things one by one:

First of all, pretty sure you weren't talking for all but the very beginning of D1. :p

Second of all, no lynching today is almost the same situation as tomorrow. Today is mislynch and lose, tomorrow is lynch or lose. Both days we can't afford to mislynch, and tomorrow especially. BUT tomorrow we will have more information to base our decision on.

Not revealing my finds is a strategic decision. Yesterday (I believe I said this in my first post today? I forget) I investigated Dark Boo, who just died. Today I also have an Inno. The thing is that Peach could very well be an inno and I don't want to clue the mafia in on a possible Peach. I know this might sound suspicious, but there's reasoning behind it.

Also, me not dying is pretty simple, really. Since I'm Mario, I'm a high-value target, and Peach will protect me. Thus, the mafia knows not to kill me. But, as before, there have been no counterclaims. So.

And, again, the problem with outing my inno is that it doesn't help town but DOES help Mafia. With my inno the Mafia knows somebody who isn't a goomba, and thus has a 50/50 chance of killing Peach. Without my inno it's a shot in the dark - a much lower 33% chance of killing Peach. (Unless they try killing me, which I doubt.) Town gets virtually no advantage. We have one (ONE) inno plus one dead inno, plus me. That leaves three unidentified people. Add to that that it's about 50/50 that my inno is King Boo, and it doesn't really count for much. There's 2/3 chance we'll lose either a toad or a goomba tomorrow, at which point Peach could out. At that point the game is stacked tremendously in our favor.

I would note, though, that Yoshiman and Sashe teaming up like that makes me suspect them somewhat. On top of that, they both went silent most of the game (besides the very beginning of D1 for Yoshiman).
 
Yoshiman222 said:
Bowser498 said:
Yoshiman: 1/2 trust: He's a really strategic player and hasn't talked, so he might be King Boo because he might be ashamed that people would know, so he didn't answer.
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Hey I spent the entire first day trying to get everyone to talk. You not been paying attention to the game or something? :p
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I was talking about Day 1.
@1nsan1: Sashe might be a Townie, but I'm not so sure. Him not talking may mean he may not want to be involved in the day, but possibly having a night role.
And I agree with Accj21 about lynching on Day 3.
There's a 33% chance the person we vote for is a member of the mafia.
And even if we kill a townsperson, that COULD be a good thing because on the next lynch we would have a better chance of killing one of the two boos. (higher probability)
So voting "No Lynch" means that on Day 3 we have a 50% chance of killing a member of the mafia.
 
Bowser498 said:
Yoshiman222 said:
Bowser498 said:
Yoshiman: 1/2 trust: He's a really strategic player and hasn't talked, so he might be King Boo because he might be ashamed that people would know, so he didn't answer.
Click to expand...
Hey I spent the entire first day trying to get everyone to talk. You not been paying attention to the game or something? :p
Click to expand...
I was talking about Day 1.
@1nsan1: Sashe might be a Townie, but I'm not so sure. Him not talking may mean he may not want to be involved in the day, but possibly having a night role.
And I agree with Accj21 about lynching on Day 3.
There's a 33% chance the person we vote for is a member of the mafia.
And even if we kill a townsperson, that COULD be a good thing because on the next lynch we would have a better chance of killing one of the two boos. (higher probability)
So voting "No Lynch" means that on Day 3 we have a 50% chance of killing a member of the mafia.
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But still there's a chance that Mario or Peach won't survive the night then...:p
 
Bowser498 said:
Sashe2705 said:
But still there's a chance that Mario or Peach won't survive the night then...:p
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But then we could take a chance and lynch someone on Day 3...and possibly get one of the boos out.
But first, we need to see who the mafia kills on Night 2. Then we would have a better chance of getting the mafia. (higher probability)
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I don't know, I think we should lynch someone today, but there's a big chance of killing a townie, so I don't know...
 
So, we have FNAF, ACCJ21, Bowser498 and 1nsan1 voting NO LYNCH.

Peach make sure to protect me. As long as I don't die, we should be golden. A townie death might win the game.
 
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